ANALYSIS OF SIR EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELOF INFLUENZA: INSIGHTS INTO THE FUTURE OF H1N1

Abstract

Review of the literature of influenza modeling studies and discussed how these models can provide insights into the future of the currently circulating novel strain of influenza A (H1N1), earlier known as swine flu. The fact how the feasibility of controlling an epidemic critically depends on the value of basic reproduction number , have been discussed. The for novel influenza A (H1N1) has recently been estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6, which is below the values of estimated for the year 1918-19 pandemic strain(mean , range 1.4 to 2.8) and is comparable to values estimated for seasonal strain(mean , range 0.9 to 2.1). A recent modeling study has shown a global cooperative strategy is essential in order to control a pandemic. It is also been shown that by modeling cross-species transmission it may be possible to predict the emergency of pandemic strains of influenza.